On Thursday evening, the Publishingnetwork invited guests to a presentation on the megatrends of the next 10 years. The gathering took place at Microsoft Switzerland’s headquarters in Wallisellen. Morell Westermann, trend and future researcher at the software company, provided us with insights into these megatrends.
Disclaimer: In the following, I directly relay some of Morell’s statements and supplement them with my own thoughts. Morell’s presentation was recorded and will be accessible on the Publishingnetwork’s website in the coming days. I will link to it as soon as the video is uploaded.
Exponential Growth
Morell opened his presentation by correcting a common thinking error. When looking into the future, people often do so very linearly. They observe how development has progressed in recent years and automatically assume it will continue in roughly the same way.
Consider this: If you drive on a straight road for 5 minutes, do you expect the next 5 minutes to continue without any curves at the same pace?
No: when driving, you’re always ready to brake and keep a firm grip on the steering wheel. Because you don’t know what will happen. Anything is possible.
This is precisely why it’s wrong to assume linear growth. Technological developments follow a different pattern. They either fail completely and fade into oblivion, or after a longer lead time, they suddenly skyrocket. Exponential growth.
As a general rule: when a trend becomes visible, it’s no longer a trend, but something whose exponential growth has just begun.
The Megatrends
Everything Becomes Software
CDs, maps, encyclopedias are now used as software. The hardware has disappeared, is still lingering a bit, or is at most being reactivated in retro waves.
Humanoid Robots
Independent robots that look and act like humans. Science fiction? Then take a look at this:
Atlas’s humanoid form is interesting. This robot appears deeply human. Somewhat unsteady on its feet. Somehow cute as it walks through the snowy forest. You feel sympathy at the moment when the human intervenes with the hockey stick.
The human form is necessary because it helps us accept this robot. In the future, we will work cooperatively with robots, and this only works if we can feel empathy for this new colleague.
By the way: We can assume that what we see on YouTube is only the tip of the iceberg. Think about it – there are already robots in laboratories around the world that make Atlas look like a small child.
The World of Work Will Change
The video above already shows nicely that warehouse workers are an endangered professional group. Although one prerequisite still needs to be met: the robot must become cheaper than the human worker. This point will come at some time, and there are numerous professions that will disappear.
“Yes, yes, but it will hardly affect highly qualified jobs.
After all, the specialized human is irreplaceable”.
Wrong. An algorithm can already detect certain diseases better than a doctor today. And if McDonald’s can take an order with a bot, then you can also finalize the next mortgage without a human bank advisor.
“Okay, but a machine is not capable of creativity.
Creativity is and remains human”.
Probably true. The question is how many professions are truly creative. In any case, computers can already create layouts, write programming code, edit film trailers, and independently produce music today. That may not be enough for the next Mona Lisa, but it’s sufficient for 80% of our “creative” everyday life.
Everything Becomes Possible
Let’s consider: a Tesla is a rolling bundle of sensors. Besides its function as a car, it could take on quite different functions:
- its cameras continuously capture the surroundings. If this data were used, you would essentially have a Street View, almost in real-time.
- its sensors measure temperature, wind, humidity – a rolling weather station that MeteoSuisse could tap into directly.
- a Tesla recognizes the road situation, it recognizes intersections, curves, stop signs: Why not update Google Maps or our national maps with this data?
There will be infinitely many new possibilities. Anyone with a good idea can implement it. New business fields can be explored. This reorders the opportunities in this world. The new possibilities are suddenly available to others than before.
Are they available to everyone? That’s a sociopolitical question. As long as the military and today’s large corporations absorb all the good new ideas, things aren’t running optimally yet. But perhaps these structures will also change fundamentally. Boundaries are being redrawn or redefined.
The End of Stupidity
It’s a small wonder that Siri, Cortana, Alexa, and all their counterparts are already part of our daily lives. Who would have thought that 5 years ago (aka exponential growth).
But let’s be honest: they’re not really that smart yet. ‘Siri, call my brother’ is a command that good old Siri can only execute after asking who my brother actually is.
But here too: we can hardly imagine what will happen in the next 5 years. In the entire Big Data pile that has already been collected about me, it’s surely easy to find out who my brother is. And in his Big Data pile, it’s stored where he is right now, what he’s doing, what he bought, ate, and burned off again while jogging. The information about me and my brother is available – and in the future, it will also be linked together.
When we smile at algorithms today and consider them ‘stupid’, beware: this stupidity will have disappeared in a few years.
Good or Bad?
Do these prospects scare us? Yes, of course. It’s all far, far outside our comfort zone.
But these technologies will come. They will make our lives easier. They will solve existing problems. They will break down boundaries, redefine them.
And we certainly won’t prevent them by resisting or longing for the good old days.
